Brazil may emerge as winner from sweeping US tariffs, economists say

By Marcela Ayres

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Sweeping U.S. tariffs could prove relatively advantageous for Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, despite President Donald Trump’s move to impose a 10% levy on its exports to the United States, economists said on Thursday.

Local markets reacted positively to the highly anticipated announcement on Wednesday, with the Brazilian real strengthening past 5.60 per U.S. dollar and reaching its highest level since October 2024.

Meanwhile, the benchmark stock index edged up 0.23%, with many pointing out that Brazil’s comparatively lighter tariff burden could shield it from major trade risks while also attracting capital flows shifting away from the United States.

XP’s research team said Trump’s tariff policy is “bad in the absolute, potentially net positive for Brazil,” as a trade war could bring gains for the commodity powerhouse while also accelerating Chinese investments in infrastructure across the country and Latin America more broadly.

“During 2018-2020, amidst the China trade war, Chinese demand for commodities shifted from the U.S. to Brazil, benefiting products like soybeans and corn,” said XP.

Iana Ferrao, partner and economist at BTG Pactual, said the tariff imposed on Brazil came as a relief to those fearing steeper penalties.

“As tariffs on other countries increased more sharply, certain Brazilian sectors could gain a relative competitive edge,” she said.

Luis Stuhlberger, chief investment officer at Verde Asset Management, said Brazil’s balanced trade relationship with Washington meant it had “highly benefited” under the worldwide tariff package.

“The question is whether Brazil will be able to seize this opportunity,” he added.

Government officials from Brazil – the world’s largest exporter of soy, cotton, beef, and chicken – had sought to stress that its trade relationship with the United States did not undermine the U.S. economy.

The U.S. has run a trade surplus with Brazil since 2008, reaching $253 million last year on more than $80 billion in bilateral trade.

(Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Additional reporting from Paula Laier in Sao Paulo; Editing by Joe Bavier)